Scott Burrill - Market Notes

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Scott's notes
Scott's Market Notes

Volatility out of the Shadows

Sep 30, 2019

Markets appear poised for a volatility breakout with Volatility of Volatility (VVIX) over 100, Volatility Futures in backwardation (near-term risk greater than far-term risk), and the SP500 Weekly Implied Move higher at  + / - 54 points or 16.90% implied volatility. For the week, we can expect, within one standard deviation, to see a range of 3016.48 to 2907.10.

Catalysts are significant from Economic Releases to Fedspeak and ongoing Conferences, as we await the beginning of Earnings Season.

 

We anticipate Implied Correlation, despite the binary nature of tweets and news, to keep us focused on individual instruments. This makes sense as the market anticipates earnings season. As in the past earnings cycles, with buybacks quiet, an important floor to the market will be absent for the near-term.

We remain in a long-term Bull Market, with Intermediate Trends predominantly up, and mixed near-term cross-currents. The focus remains on Treasuries and Financials.

Weekly Magnet helps establish short-term bias.

Updated Levels.

Have a great week.

All the best,

Scott

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