With 80% of the S&P 1500 above its mid-price Bollinger Band and broad markets trading above or near their weekly implied moves, below please find updated Levels. In fact, we have witnessed a significant shift in Daily Trend from our ETF proxies.
Yet, across multiple metrics, this remains a Bear Market Bounce until the Bulls convince otherwise with the weight of evidence.
So, it remains a Traders Market with a Bullish Bias having converted the Daily, Weekly, and Monthly Magnets. This is testament to how bad the rout was when we broke through the volatility box kicking off Act II in early December.
Catalysts are aplenty as Fedspeak stokes the rally and hopes for a softening of geopolitical concerns remain. FOMC Minutes are forthcoming.
Peering into our data and scraping elsewhere when needed, we can quickly observe where flows are occurring today.
As part of our data mining and applied analytic culture mixed in with a big dose of humility and curiosity, we leverage that by looking at abnormal block trading volume in contingent derivative trades that occurred outside of the current day's trading range over the last few months in SPY. While the direction is not often apparent, it provides unique insight into risk confluence zones. Below, we observe 256.15 in SPY or 2561 in the SP500 as a new Level to confirm our pre-computed metrics.
All the best,