Scott Burrill - Market Notes

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Scott's notes
Scott's Market Notes

To Cut or Not to Cut

Jun 17, 2019

Good Morning:

Fed Fund Futures are signaling a potential change in interest rate policy, and implying an 84% probability of easing interest rates at the July 31st FOMC Meeting.

Of course, the Bond Market is already anticipating this with multiple curve inversions.

Regardless, Equity Markets will be glued to the FOMC Statement and Chair Powell's Press Conference for hints of not easing in the future. The data is mixed supporting an ease this Wednesday, but there is still a 17.5% chance of one.

Despite the binary events this week, the SP500 Option Implied Move is reduced to + / - 41 points through Friday's close or an upper edge of 2928.53 and a lower edge of 2845.43. The Magnet of 2894 will set bias.

Trends remain generally up.

Catalysts are binary and news driven.

Current Levels.

Have a great week.

All the best,

Scott

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