Scott Burrill - Market Notes

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Levels for Monday

Levels for Monday

Dec 3, 2018

Markets are rallying strongly with the announced truce in the trade war following the Trump-Xi Dinner at the G20, as well as changes in major Oil suppliers to reduce output ahead of the OPEC Meeting in Vienna on Thursday.

As of Friday's close, the SP500 was anticipating a + / - 47 point move for Monday's close alone. For the week, we have a + / - 69 point option implied move. Importantly, the market has been undervaluing risk as the realized volatility these past two weeks have eclipsed the weekly expected move. Last week alone, we exceeded the move by a factor of 2.

This week is filled with potential catalysts every day. With US Markets closed on Wednesday, it is unclear at this time whether there will be changes to the Economic Calendar.

The short-term trend is decidedly UP and we will look to whether this will propagate to the weekly trends as time progresses.

As always, we look to our Levels and Smart Money Flow for bias and direction (UP).

All the best,

Scott

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