Scott Burrill - Market Notes

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Financial Turbulence Dead Ahead

Jun 15, 2020

The S&P 500 experienced a 2-sigma change relative to its anticipated move last week. The Volatility of VIX (VVIX) closed higher week-over-week by 40.90% at 151, way above our trigger zone of 110-120, signaling pros are rushing into VIX products, as markets once again are back in the throes of financial turbulence.

Moreover, Volatility Futures are in backwardation once again, meaning the risk is higher now than in the future.


And, a marked change in trend is observed in the scatter images below.


For now, the conservative weekly trend model remains up, but other short-term triggers have already flipped. A few bad days doesn't make a trend, but it can sure catalyze a change.

Given all this, the S&P 500 has expanded its weekly implied move, corroborating further turbulence ahead.

The Economic Calendar is average, highlighting housing data, retail sales, with plenty of Fedspeak.




Updated Index, Commodity, and Treasury Levels.

Please note there will not be an update next week.


Have a great couple of weeks.


All the best,


Scott




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