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Market Note

A Week Filled with Binary Events

Feb 11, 2019

Markets are rallying in Globex on a tentative Border-Security Deal to avert another government shutdown.

For a week with only a 41 point implied move in the SP500 or 13.6% implied volatility, the potential catalysts loom large to break us out of the efficient (from a risk perspective) consolidation we've been in. It's not unreasonable to expect the edges of the implied moves to be exceeded. The upper edge is 2749.50 and the lower edge is 2666.25.

Last week, the Weekly Magnet only was challenged in Friday's session. This week, the Weekly Magnet is 2708.25, or where we balanced in Monday's session in a relatively quiet session.

Potential catalysts from Fedspeak, Brexit, and Trade, as well as Economic Releases and Earnings Releases in recent movers such as ATVI which was down 780 basis points today alone and has an earnings implied move of 10.8% are on tap.

Trends remain solidly up; however, focus remains on the Financial Sector and Treasury complex for broader context.

Updated Levels.

All the best,


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