Scott Burrill - Market Notes

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Scott's notes
Scott's market Notes

A Binary Market

Sep 2, 2019

We traded to the upper edge of the Trading Range Box and eclipsed the Upper Bound as forecast from the Weekly Option Implied Move, likely on tactical asset allocation and month-end effects.

We will break out of this range and realized volatility will likely be similar to last fall, that is, extreme. It's a matter of time the longer we build energy and seek direction in what is a binary market.

Volatility remains bid and, in this shortened, holiday week, the SP500 Weekly Option Implied Move is high at + / - 60 points. The Upper Bound is 2986.09 and the Lower Bound is 2866.83.

Of course, we remain in a longer-term Bull Market, with intermediate-term Trends Down and the short-term bias Up. That likely will be tested early, as we already came near the Magnet overnight in Globex. This is a fragile market considering the upside trends in the chart below, as well as September Seasonality on average slightly negative.

 

The Economic Calendar is significant, along with Fedspeak and Conference season upon us.

Updated Levels.

Have a great week.

All the best,

Scott

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